Next year the desktop market will almost stop falling

Not the easiest year for the computer market is coming to an end, so DigiTimes Research experts have shared their forecasts for next year and summed up the current one.
The latest one for the desktop market, according to the authors of the study, was not as bad as the one for laptops.
The supply of mobile PCs fell by 20%, and desktop PCs fell by only 11%.
Next year, the decline in the desktop market will be limited to 2.1%.Image source: AppleAccording to the source, during the three quarters of this year, the corporate sector supported the demand for desktop systems, and only in the fourth quarter should the volume of their shipments consistently fall by 11.7%.
Most manufacturers have accumulated impressive inventories in their warehouses, so they are in no hurry to deliver new products to customers.For all of 2022, DigiTimes Research predicts that 86.4 million desktops will be delivered globally in finished form.
That's 10.9 percent less than the results for 2019, which is taken as a base for comparison because of the lack of a pandemic factor.
Next year, no more than 84.6 million desktops will be delivered to the market, a decline of 2.1% from this year.In the first quarter of the outgoing year, 21 million desktops were delivered, in the second quarter shipments peaked at 24.3 million units, but in the third has already dropped to 22 million.They are expected to fall to 19.2 million units in the fourth quarter.
Almost 13% of the segment is comprised of all-in-one, one-piece computers.
By the end of the year 11.06 million units should be delivered.
The peak of popularity of such PCs reached in 2021, when 14.32 million units were sold.
For this reason this year the number of monoblocks shipped on the market will decrease by 22%.The largest contract manufacturer of monoblocks previously was Quanta Computer, which serves the interests of Apple, but at the end of the year it dropped to the third place.
Compal and its main client Lenovo is on the second place, and the first this year will go to HP Inc.
Wistron, which produces monoblocks for Dell, will be in fourth place.
The three Taiwanese contract manufacturers together control 72% of the market.
Next year, shipments of desktop monoblocks could grow by several percent, according to DigiTimes Research analysts.
In their view, a return to growth in demand for Apple iMacs should contribute to this.

If the chip production in Taiwan stops completely, the industry will need at least 5 years to recover

The meeting of top political leaders of China and the US was designed to ease tensions in the Taiwan issue.
A significant portion of semiconductor components are manufactured in Taiwan, and stability in the region is extremely important for the entire global economy.
Some experts believe that in the case of a complete shutdown of Taiwan enterprises, the semiconductor industry will be able to recover only in five years.Image source: TSМSimilar estimates in his interview with Barron's shares the author of the book \"War for chips: the battle for the most important technology in the world\" Chris Miller - Tufts University professor from the United States.
In his opinion, the U.S.
authorities underestimate the possible consequences of a regional conflict that could put Taiwan`s enterprises out of business.
Not only do the island produces up to 90% of advanced semiconductor components, but also the local production volume of chips is so large that no other region in the world can compete with it so far.
Up to a third of the annual increase in computing power in the world is provided by Taiwanese enterprises, according to expert estimates.
In the professor's opinion, the semiconductor crisis of 2020 and 2021, which paralyzed the work of the global automobile industry, is only a pale shadow of the likely problems that an armed conflict involving Taiwan would cause.
Even the PRC's \"nonviolent\" methods of influencing the island's economy can have a significant impact on the determination of Taiwan's leadership to remain independent.By the way, Chris Miller highlights the role of qualified personnel in the formation of the modern semiconductor industry.
The same founder of TSMC, Morris Chang, according to the author of the book, is the man to whom the whole world should be grateful for the technology we now have at our disposal.
For the United States, however, it is important to maintain a sensible immigration policy, since many of the leaders of major technology corporations are migrant workers or their direct descendants, and their role in shaping U.S.
industry and the economy is hard to dispute.

NVIDIA gaming revenue collapsed by more than half, but server revenue grew by 31%--the company's net income fell by 72%

NVIDIA's long-awaited quarterly report was not a complete disappointment for analysts, as revenue of $5.93 billion slightly exceeded their expectations, and only earnings per share of $0.27 missed forecasts.
On the other hand, NVIDIA expects revenue in the fourth quarter not to exceed $6 billion, while investors were expecting a little more at $6.09 billion.
Only the server and automotive segments maintained positive year-over-year revenue dynamics.Source image: NVIDIAIn this area NVIDIA's revenue in the third quarter rose by 31% compared to the same period last year to $3.833 billion.
In fact, about 65% of all revenue in the last quarter the company received exactly from sales of components for data centers, and the presence of positive Consistent growth was hampered by weak demand in China, but even so, revenue increased by 1%.
As for the impact of U.S.
sanctions on the supply of calculator gas pedals in China, NVIDIA managed to largely offset it by the supply of alternative solutions to the PRC market - we are talking about recently introduced A800.The total revenue of the company at the same time decreased by 17% year-on-year, to $5.931 billion.
Consistent decline reached 12 %.
In the gaming segment, the company generated only $1.574 billion in revenue, down 51% from the same quarter last year, and down 23% from the second fiscal quarter.
By the way, the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 is already on the NVIDIA calendar, so the captions in the table may be confusing to the uninformed reader.Image source: NVIDIAAccording to NVIDIA representatives, the dynamics of gaming revenue in the third quarter reflected the decline in supply of GPUs to its partners, who had to find ways to reduce accumulated inventory as quickly as possible.
Demand for graphics cards was undermined by both macroeconomic problems and the impact of lockdowns in China.
While a 51 percent year-over-year decline in gaming revenue was blamed on declines in both desktop and mobile graphics chip sales, the 23 percent sequential decline was primarily driven by mobile graphics solutions.There were few comments from the CFO about the impact of the cryptocurrency sector on NVIDIA's business.
According to Colette Kress, the transition of Ethereum to a new mathematical model reduced the degree of suitability of video cards for cryptocurrency mining.
In turn, this contributed to the influx of used graphics cards in the secondary market and reduced the demand for new graphics cards in some regions of the world, especially in its budget part, according to NVIDIA.In the direction of professional visualization NVIDIA's revenue decreased by 60% to $ 200 million, in annual comparison, the decline reached 65%.
In contrast, the automotive segment increased 86 percent to $251 million in year-over-year revenue and 14 percent in sequential revenue - primarily due to demand for autopilot systems.
For OEM and other, NVIDIA revenue decreased 69% year-over-year to $73 million and sequential revenue decreased 48%.
Sequential decrease in NVIDIA explain the decline in demand for Jetson platforms and components for notebooks, and revenue from sales of CMP gas pedals for cryptocurrency mining in the past quarter was negligible, although a year ago, reached $ 105 million.
Operating expenses of NVIDIA in the third quarter rose by 7% sequentially to $ 2.576 billion and by 31% year on year.
Operating income increased 20% sequentially to $601 million, but was down 77% year over year.
Net income rose 4 percent sequentially to $680 million, but was down 72 percent year over year.
NVIDIA's revenue per share also fell proportionally, from $0.97 last year to $0.27 this year.
It is noteworthy that NVIDIA's overall revenue in the segment of computing and network solutions grew by 27% year over year to $3.816 billion, although as you can guess in this case, the company helped the server segment.
Graphics sales alone were 24 percent less than the previous quarter, and 48 percent less than the year before - only $2.115 billion.
As a side note, NVIDIA was forced to write off $702 million in the third quarter due to a backlog in its inventory, but it was mainly due to problems with its server component A100 sales in China.
The breakdown was as follows: $354 million was for products that were already in stock, while $34 million was for products that were out of stock.

Qualcomm: smartphone sales will fall more than 10% this year, and Apple will not give up its modems in 2023

In the third quarter Qualcomm managed to increase revenues by 22% to $11.39 billion, but not the most optimistic forecast for the smartphone market caused the company's stock price to decline by 7.56% after the close of trading.
According to this provider of mobile processors, at the end of the current calendar year, the smartphone market will shrink not by 5-6%, but by 10-12%.
Since the beginning of this quarter, the company will also stop hiring new staff.Image source: Qualcomm TechnologiesIn the current quarter, as stated by representatives of Qualcomm, the company's revenue will be in the range of $9.2 to $10 billion, which is a couple of billion dollars below the most modest expectations of analysts.
Apparently, this also contributed to Qualcomm's share price decline after the release of financial statistics.
The company's representatives also noted that a sharp decline in demand and an improvement in the supply of components led to an increase in product inventories.
Qualcomm will have to spend the accumulated surplus products in the warehouses for about a couple more quarters.
The company has been running QCT, which supplies chips for smartphones and other devices that transmit data over wireless channels, and has generated $9.9 billion in revenue last quarter, up 28 percent from the same period last year.
Smartphone chip shipments brought Qualcomm $6.57 billion in revenue last quarter, increasing revenue by 40% over the same quarter last year.
The automotive business grew 58% to $427 million, while the Internet of Things added 24%, giving Qualcomm a core revenue of $1.92 billion.
Finally, radio frequency components dropped 20% to $992 million.Technology licensing and patents brought Qualcomm $1.44 billion last quarter, up 8% from a year earlier, but this revenue line still fell short of analysts' expectations.
The head of the company, Cristiano Amon, acknowledged that Qualcomm cannot stay away from the negative impact of macroeconomic conditions on the entire semiconductor industry.
Operating costs are expected to be reduced not only by suspending the expansion of the staff from October this year, but also by other measures.
Regarding the relationship with customers, it was said that the license agreement with Samsung Electronics has been extended until 2030, and in the next quarter the Korean giant will increase the share of Qualcomm chips in its mobile devices.
Almost all of the iPhones next year will use Qualcomm modems, though the company previously expressed fears that it will not get more than 20% of Apple's orders because it has time to introduce modem solutions of its own design.
In a couple of years, in the opinion of Qualcomm's management, Apple will still be able to almost completely abandon the components of the first brand.
According to the forecasts of Bloomberg, the first smartphones Apple with modem components of its own design will not appear until 2024.

AMD's number of customer processors shipped in the third quarter fell 43%

At the quarterly reporting event, company executives talked about changes in the processor supply mix only in relative terms, but the 10-Q reporting form released later allowed for specific numerical figures.
AMD said the number of CPUs shipped in the quarter was down 43 percent, though the year-over-year average selling price was up 5 percent.Source image: AMDRemind that AMD's third-quarter revenue in the customer segment fell 40 percent from $1.7 billion to $1.0 billion, due to significant inventory build-up in customers' warehouses while demand decreased.
While AMD has seen a 43 percent year on year decline in volume terms for the segment, the average selling price has even increased 5 percent although yesterday AMD officials said the number was down in sequential terms.AMD attributes the decline in processor shipments in volume terms to an accumulation of substantial inventory in the customer warehouse and a decline in demand for the product, but the year on year increase in average selling price is due to an increase in the share of more than 10 percent of the total sales volume.
In this comparison, the number of CPUs sold to customers has decreased by 18%, and their average price has increased by 28%, but in this case due to the shift in demand towards more expensive mobile Ryzen models.
Apparently, by the third quarter, the moment of inertia in sales of mobile processors AMD exhausted itself, and only desktop versions of Ryzen among the more expensive ones were in sane demand.
By the way, AMD explained how its revenue changed in the gaming segment, which includes not only discrete graphics cards, but also components of game consoles.
On an annualized basis in the third quarter, it grew 14% from $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion, but since the beginning of the year growth reached 34% and corresponded to the level of revenue of $5.2 billion.
The engine of growth were gaming consoles, as noted yesterday, but gaming graphics cards have not only declined in revenue, but also reduced the number of shipped units.
The weakness in video card demand is attributed to worsening macroeconomic conditions.

AMD prepares for further revenue decline - PC market situation will improve only in 2023

AMD quarterly conference revealed that the company's revenue in the consumer segment on the background of declining demand for new PCs decreased by 40% compared to the same period last year.
At the same time, the trends in which the market is developing at the moment are not so unambiguous as to characterize them by any single definition.
It is only clear that now the market is falling, but recovery is not far off, believe AMD.Source image: AMDFirst, AMD CEO Lisa Su (Lisa Su) explained that revenue in the client area in the third quarter decreased, among other reasons, due to lower number of processors sold.
Their average selling price also declined in a sequential comparison, as more expensive processors were depleted faster in terms of inventory.
In year-on-year comparisons, the average selling price went up, and this can be explained by the continuing tendency to shift the focus towards more expensive models.
The head of AMD even added that the company's position is strong in the premium, gaming and corporate customer market segments, and it expects to strengthen its position in these areas going forward.
In the long term, the price structure of AMD products supply in the client segment should not change, as the head of the company is convinced.As noted earlier today, AMD management expects to reduce the number of computers sold in the whole market by 20% this year, and next year's decline will be limited to 10%.
The company will continue to actively get rid of inventory in the fourth quarter, and this process is somewhat accelerated in a sequential comparison, and in general by the end of the year AMD will be in better shape, but it should be understood that the revenue in the current quarter slightly reduced in the client segment, as well as in the gaming.
In the latter case, such dynamics can be explained by the fact that the peak demand for components for gaming consoles occurred in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter it traditionally declines.
New gaming video cards with RDNA 3 architecture, which will be presented this week, though will be able to revive the market in the fourth quarter, losses from the decline in demand for game consoles components will not be able to cover.
But next year AMD expects to maintain revenue in the gaming segment at the level of the current year, which, given the high base effect formed by the last stages of the cryptocurrency boom is quite optimistic.In general, speaking of the PC market, AMD management expects to overcome major problems in the current quarter and early next year, and the rest of 2023 should already contribute to the PC market recovery, according to Lisa Su.
In the customer segment, she promises to introduce some new products (most likely the new Ryzen 7000), which, combined with the recently announced Ryzen 7000 processors, will help revive interest in the brand's products.Moreover, at retail, even in the third quarter, sales volumes of Ryzen 5000 processors grew, according to Lisa Su, but only when it comes to desktop models.
With the expansion of the range of motherboards with socket AM5 more affordable models in the current quarter will increase the popularity of the new family of Ryzen 7000 processors, as the company's management expects.
AMD is not ready for the aggressive pricing policy for the sake of reducing the inventory, because it is important for it to maintain the profitability indicators.
Last year, for example, the company did not fight for the segment of Chromebooks, because it was based on too cheap processors, the release of which was unprofitable for the company.

Ryzen processor sales collapsed by 40% - AMD has negative profits in the customer segment

AMD quarterly report was released a few hours ago, and in terms of revenue dynamics only slightly disappointed analysts, who were ready for the loss of the former momentum of the PC market.
The company's total revenue was up 29% year-over-year, but in the consumer segment it collapsed by 40% due to Ryzen processors, and had to end the quarter with operating losses in this area.Image source: AMDNet revenue for AMD fell 93% to $66 million, but the company attributes this to the costs associated with the Xilinx takeover deal.
At the end of the quarter AMD's revenue was $5.6 billion, and while a 29% increase in annualized terms cannot be characteristic of previous quarters, it still looks decent against the backdrop of competitors.
Profit margin decreased during the year from 48% to 42%, operating expenses increased by 113% to $2.43 billion, and the quarter ended with an operating loss of $64 million.
The company explains this by the growth of expenses on research and development, as well as by the consequences of the Xilinx takeover deal.
Due to the need to reduce inventories and review product prices in the past quarter AMD lost at least $ 160 million.Image source: AMDAs the head of the company Lisa Su (Lisa Su) said at the conference call, \"the third quarter was worse than we expected because of the deteriorating PC market and a significant correction of inventories in the supply chain in this segment.
In fact, the value of inventory at the end of the quarter increased 77% to $3.37 billion.
Even in such a difficult environment, the CEO added, the company managed to increase revenue in the data center, embedded and gaming solutions segments.
At least in the area of game consoles there was a positive trend.Image source: AMDIn the segment of data centers revenue grew by 45% year on year to $1.6 billion due to the popularity of central processors EPYC family.
Operating profit rose from $308 million to $505 million, and the operating margin rose from 28% to 31%.
The past quarter was AMD's tenth consecutive quarter in which its server processor sales volumes in cash terms broke a record.
EPYC processors of new Genoa generation are in high demand, as pointed out by AMD, although their formal announcement is only scheduled for November 10.
Shipments of Xilinx Programmable Matrixes and Pensando Computing Accelerators are up noticeably.
Lisa Su said she expects revenue growth in the server segment next year, especially cloud solutions in the U.S., but the Chinese market will be weak.Image source: AMDIn the client segment, AMD saw a 40% drop in revenue to $1 billion compared to the same quarter last year.
Processor shipments declined due to inventory surpluses while demand in the PC market declined, all of which resulted in an operating loss of $26 million in the segment.
Nevertheless, the shift in the supply mix in favor of the more expensive Ryzen desktop models allowed the average selling price to increase year-over-year.
The company only needs to add that the Ryzen 7000 processors with Zen 4 architecture introduced in the last quarter received praise in published reviews.
By the end of 2023, according to Lisa Suh, the capacity of the PC market should shrink by 10%.
This year, the market will shrink by the full 20%.Image source: AMDIn the gaming segment, which recently includes both graphics cards and components for gaming consoles, AMD managed to increase revenues by 14% year-on-year to $1.6 billion.While revenues in the direction of graphics cards declined, gaming consoles provided a positive trend, partially compensating for this.
In fact, gaming console components have been breaking revenue records for six consecutive quarters.
Operating profit in this segment fell from $231 million to $142 million.
The company had to generate less revenue from graphics solutions and faced increased inventory, as well as downward price adjustments.
The operating profit margin dropped from 16% to 9%.
Gaming consoles were in high demand because of Microsoft and Sony's preparations for the new season.
On the profile slide of the presentation AMD also did not forget to mention the preparation for the announcement of graphics solutions generation RDNA 3 with chips produced by 5nm technology.
Novelties are to significantly increase performance compared to current generation products.
As expected, they will be presented this week.AMD's revenue in the segment of embedded solutions grew by an impressive 1549% to $ 1.3 billion as a result of changes in the accounting structure and the acquisition of Xilinx at the beginning of the current

Intel says it's already winning back its position in the PC market from AMD and isn't going to stop

Intel management at its quarterly reporting event began by saying that revenue in the customer area, while down 17% year over year, has consistently grown by 6%.
The sales structure of Intel components in this sector changed so that the average selling price increased.
The company was able to strengthen its position in the customer segment, and the Intel management is full of confidence that it will be able to do so in the future.Image source: Intel CEO Patrick Gelsinger even let it slip that in the third quarter Intel stepped up work with those of its customers who were willing to accelerate the purchase of the product in light of the upcoming price hikes in the fourth quarter.
According to the company's management, this led to the strengthening of Intel's position in the client segment in the third quarter.
At the same time, revenue in the segment as a whole fell by 17% year-on-year due to the majority of customers having excess products in stock.If we consider revenue from products for the desktop segment, in the third quarter, Intel's revenue increased by 3.3% year-on-year to $3.22 billion, which for the declining market as a whole is not so bad.
In the notebook segment, revenue for the year was down 25.8% to $4.4 billion.
As Patrick Gelsinger pointed out, in the PC segment the company has \"fundamentally increased its market share\", and its existing product lines in terms of competitive positioning are very strong.Intel management is not confused by the possibility of a decline in PC sales in the global market to levels below those seen before the pandemic, although they are convinced that this will not happen at all.
It's just that so many computers were sold during the pandemic that if they have to be replaced sooner or later with new ones, Intel will definitely get its piece of the pie.
According to Gelsinger, Intel's product line is positioned in such a way that it can expect to further increase its market share.
Moreover, the sagging demand is more pronounced in the segment of low-cost PCs, and Intel is now focusing on more expensive offerings.As the head of Intel added, Alder Lake and Raptor Lake processors are showing impressive performance, and preparations for the Meteor Lake release next year are in full swing.
The recently unveiled Raptor Lake processors do show superiority over existing AMD solutions in terms of performance, according to independent tests.
At the same time, Intel products also turn out to be cheaper, so it is easy to explain the confidence of the company's management in the revenge on the consumer market.