Analysts predict that by early 2023 the gap in the price of DDR4- and DDR5-memory will become insignificant

Contract prices for DDR5, which only for July decreased by 20%, will continue to fall until the end of this year, reports DigiTimes, citing sources related to the memory module manufacturers.
They believe that by the end of the current - early next year, prices will approach the optimal point (sweet spot), when the gap between chips DDR5 and DDR4 leveled.Image source: skhynix.comSources of Taiwan resource note that the supply of DDR5 chips in 2021 were limited due to lack of other components - logic and circuit power management, which caused a significant rise in price next-generation memory modules.
Now we see the reverse processes: the reduction of the components deficit and the low consumer demand for PCs and consumer electronics, amid negative macroeconomic factors in the 2nd quarter of 2022 led to a decrease in contract prices for DDR5 chips - in July alone they fell in price by 10-15% compared to DDR4.
Therefore, the expansion of production will be gradual, given the threats posed by stagnant demand.
All of these processes will certainly have a beneficial effect on the DRAM market for the consumer in 2023.
However, the spread of DDR5 in the PC segment is expected to be slower than in the areas of industrial and server equipment - prices will still be considered high.

In NVIDIA's footsteps: Micron warns shareholders about decline in revenues due to falling demand for memory

American company Micron Technology Inc.
said that the revenue for the current quarter may be lower than previously forecasted.
The announcement comes as demand for memory chips continues to fall.Image source: MicronIn an official statement, Micron said demand for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash memory has continued to steadily decline since the last forecast.
The company expects challenging conditions to continue over the next two quarters - at least until the end of this year.A month and a half ago, Micron expected revenue of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion for the next three months versus $8.6 billion in the previous quarter.
Analysts had forecast revenue in the $7.28 billion range, but now the company has warned that revenue will be near the lower end of the estimate, closer to $6.8 billion.The company also intends to cut some costs in response to the situation, noting that the amount of capital spending in fiscal 2023 will fall significantly compared to the previous year.Micron announced a lower quarterly revenue forecast a day after NVIDIA reported that quarterly sales would be well below expectations.
In addition, last week AMD reported a decline in graphics gas pedal sales.
As for Micron, today it announced its intention to invest $40 billion in memory production in the U.S.
by the end of the decade.

Samsung DRAM-memory sales declined again and will continue to fall until the end of the year

Samsung Electronics has reported a decline in DRAM RAM sales in the first three months of this year - the trend has continued for the second consecutive quarter.
The reason was a number of negative factors.
Nevertheless, the manufacturer manages to maintain a leading position in the relevant market.Image source: Samsung According to analysts from Omdia, in January-March Samsung DRAM-memory sales revenue amounted to $10.34 billion, $ 9 million less than in the three months prior to that.
However, this is the second quarter in which the decline in sales - according to the magazine Business Korea, DRAM sales fell by 9% to $10.5 billion in the last quarter.At the same time, Samsung has maintained its leadership status in the global DRAM market, the company's share of 42.7%.
Samsung's revenue decline in the sector was held against a cyclical decline in DRAM-memory prices, a process exacerbated by events in Ukraine and the disruption of the supply of some products from China due to health restrictions related to outbreaks of COVID-19.DRAM prices are steadily decreasing since October last year.
SK hynix, which ranks second in this market, sold $6.56 billion worth of DRAM modules in the first quarter, down $871 from October through December.
At the end of the first quarter, the company's market share decreased from 30.1% to 27.1%.The third player - American Micron Technology - on the contrary, increases sales.
In the first quarter, its revenues from DRAM sales grew by $575 million to $6.03 billion, and its market share grew from 22.1% to 24.8%.Global DRAM sales in the first quarter of this year totaled $24.25 billion - industry revenues are falling for the second consecutive quarter after they reached a record $26.24 billion in July-September last year.
Meanwhile, industry experts draw a gloomy picture for the DRAM market in the second half of this year, predicting a 10% drop in prices amid rising inflation and the possibility of recession in the world's leading economies.
At the same time, back in January of this year, Samsung predicted a possible increase in DRAM prices - forecasts did not come true.

Micron will pull Japan up to the level of Taiwan - production of DRAM on the most advanced technological process will start there too

According to Japanese sources, Micron intends to start production of RAM chips with 1β technological process in Japan by the end of this year.
This was announced two weeks ago in Taiwan during Computex 2022.
Traditionally, Micron's new processors get to Taiwan early, but this time the American memory manufacturer decided to pull Japan up to Taiwan's level without too much delay.Image source: MicronThe production of DRAM memory using the 1β process will increase the density of memory cells even slightly.
Right now, Micron's most advanced 10nm process is the 1α process.
Moving from 1z to 1α resulted in up to 40% increase in memory density and 15-20% improvement in energy savings.
The company did not disclose the exact details of how much better 1β would be than 1α.
It is important to note that the 1β memory process (which could conceivably be 12- or 11nm) would not require the latest EUV scanners.
Production will still rely on 193nm DUV scanners.
In that sense, upgrading the Japanese lines will be relatively inexpensive for Micron.
The upgrade work is taking place at the former Elpida Memory plant in Hiroshima, which Micron got after buying the Japanese manufacturer in 2013.Now analysts would like to hear more details from Micron about the next tech process, 1γ (gamma).
So far it is known that the production of memory using 1γ will start in 2024.
This will require the installation of new EUV scanners.
Earlier, the company promised that it would show the first 13.5 nm \"extreme\" wavelength scanners at its Taiwanese production facility later this year.
The Japanese also want these, but when they will be available is a mystery to Micron.

Micron will increase share of long-term contracts with customers

Micron Technology's management spoke to investors this week, promising to increase dividends and share repurchase costs, outlining a trend of decreasing dependence on the PC market and talking about an experiment with a new type of long-term contract.
The picture of the future, in general, turned out to be optimistic, the company's share price rose by a small percent.Image source: Micron TechnologyIn the period up to 2025 the supply of memory type DRAM will grow by 17-19% annually, in the segment of NAND this figure will reach 28-29%.
By the end of the decade, Micron predicts that the total turnover of the memory chip industry will reach $330 billion versus $161 billion in 2021.
Already, memory chips account for 30% of the semiconductor industry's total turnover, though at the beginning of the century they settled for 10%.The data center segment provided $50 billion in memory revenue last year.
Until the middle of the decade, memory shipments in this segment will grow at an average annual rate of 28% for DRAM and 33% per year for NAND.Automotive market turnover last year did not exceed $4 billion, but demand for DRAM type memory in this segment until the middle of the decade should grow at 40% annually, and in the case of NAND this figure will reach 49%.
A fully autonomous driven car will require 30 times more DRAM type memory, and 100 times more NAND type memory, than a driver-only driven car.Micron is gradually reducing its reliance on the PC and smartphone markets.
While both segments accounted for about 55% of the company's revenue last year, their share will drop to 38% by mid-decade.
By then, the data center segment will increase its share from 30% to 42%, and the combined share of the automotive, industrial and telecom segments will increase from 15% to 20%.As an experiment, Micron has signed a long-term memory supply agreement with one of its ten largest customers, which provides an annual revenue supplement of more than $500 million for more than three years.
The customer in this case gets the priority right to receive products in short supply, and the pricing policy is adjusted as the manufacturer's costs decrease.
At the same time, the price of the contract is not subject to fluctuations which are typical for the short-term market.
At the same time, it was announced about Micron's intention to increase the amount of dividends by 15% and provide up to 100% of the available funds for the return of capital to investors.
Now this value does not exceed 50%.